News and Reviews....
The END of DVD ! Sept. 2003
By Robert Lieto
I read an interesting report a few days ago which suggests that Virtual Delivery will be the end of DVD rental as well as the discs themselves. The report was put together by Forrester Research and released on September 2, 2003. The study predicts that in five (5) years, CDs and DVDs will start to go the way of the Vinyl LP as 33% of music sales and 19% of home video revenue will shift to streaming and downloading.
It goes on to state that Hollywood will win the war against illegal downloading with the battlefield littered with CDs and DVDs. This due to the continued proliferation of illegal file trading which has caused an estimated $700 million in lost CD sales since 1999. But it will be due more to the efforts of studios, cable companies and Telco's to finally deliver legitimate alternatives like VOD (Video on demand). The idea that anyone with VOD will actually get up to go to the nearest rental store is the just of their argument. They also stated that VOD growth in the next five (5) years will be from 10 to 35 million, or about a third of all U.S. television households. The association that represents the Disc makers does not believe that the output of discs will slow regardless. This remains to be seen. In fact, the Princeton N.J. based International Recording Media Association estimates that the number of DVDs replicated each year in North America will increase from a current 1.4 billion to 2.6 billion by 2006.
CD replications although, are forecast by IRMA to fall by 15% - 18% in the next five years, about half the rate of decline as predicted by the Forrester Report. The consensus in the manufacturing business is that there will be a decline, but not a drastic decline. The growth is seen again in Video and DVD.
Another research organization, Barrington Research Associates see the VOD causing an increase in hard coping once the Video is downloaded and so the same optical storage issues exist.
The Forrester Report lists a number of winners and losers from the expected changes. Beneficiaries are Internet portals that enable VOD media services, Broadband suppliers and the creative community that would benefit from the costs associated with manufacture and distribution. Media conglomerates could be among the losers if they do not have control of emerging means of distribution like VOD. They also believe, shifting floor space from sales of discs to Media Services will help store fronts like Wal-Mart and Best Buys. Their final statement was "All in all, the change will come and manifest itself as the public see fit for it is their dollars that shift trends".
Comment ..... I agree that the decline will be gradual and weighing in the balance, on the ability for the mass market to acquire the electronic media, all rated against time. The "disc" will be around for a long time. It is a flexible, developing medium, and has proved over time, a stable method of storage. The shape and material of tomorrows' storage medium may or may not be something we are familiar with today..
If you liked this article, please let us know by filling in a comment on our email page.
